Peter Schiff and Michael Burry Were Just Lucky!
This is a dialogue I've been having with a potential client who knows something fishy is going on. He's still young and finances mortgages for a living. And is entirely unhappy with the situation and the training and information the mainstream is giving him. I've told him I cannot give him financial advice, from difficult experience during dot-com when I made a mint by pure luck and timing. Friends who rarely spoke to me were at my door asking what IPO to gamble on. All I will say is what I say to everyone:
"get on the property ladder as quick as you can, don't over commit yourself, keep an eagle eye on things and never ever do any of it by social media. Only ever take your own advice once youve looked into it all with extreme care. This is your family and household you are taking care of after all. Your friends will drop you like a sack of shit. Family is all. But... government of all partys will bail you out if it's a mortgage before all others, even before the financial market senior bonds. Because then they have what the party wants - your vote"
Fred Harrison was not lucky. He nailed it with his forecast a decade before, and showed exactly how from the root. The other two are institutional gamblers and just got lucky.
So. You cannot afford your own house yet due to no savings and high prices. This is not a recommendation or financial advice. But if you want to speculate there is a huge amount to be made in the coming real estate induced recession(about 3 years from now).
Peter Schiff and Michael Burry got their only lucky break from real estate at the root, not the derivatives of real estate they keep fibbing about. More specifically, from insurance swaps against bundles of high risk mortgages their funds owned as assets.
Indeed, on their only successful gambles they made a lot of money. But they are even now still not smart enough to understand fully how they did it. Sure, they understand the mechanics of it all, bonds, CDOs, MBSs and so on from long term experience in financial markets. This time they were just lucky that one of their gambles paid off more than all their others put together, which failed. This is the life of the lottery. One big winner, millions of losers. This was just their time in the sun and good for them, they must be blessed because only a very few win big even once. God must have been looking down because since then, neither have said how they really did it because they do not know. I salute them for this winning gamble and would shake their hand, doff my cap and bow before them if I was lucky enough ever to meet them.
People say look at these two. They keep forecasting many things successfully. Are they not brilliant? But this is just you who do not look carefully, wanting to believe their very succesfull propaganda marketing rather than going deep yourself to see what the actual record is. You want to see the winner in you by projecting yourselves onto them. The cool gambler who won. Neither men have forecast anything since their single lucky break as gamblers 15 years ago. Nothing. In fact both have made huge well documented mistakes costing them millions as all gamblers always do. In the end the gambler will spend more on trying to repeat that lucky win than the win itself so always end up under water. Just one more try, this will be it!
Think about it. A gambler can make a 100 gambles, not knowing how the system screws them over, not taking care to understand the system fully, and can win on lets say 49 of them. They are still under water. But the occasional lucky 'investor' will go against statistical probability and make a big win which looks like they knew what the hell they were doing all along. It was merely luck blessing them and they must be paid full respect for being so blessed. Nevertheless, it was luck which blessed them. This is what happened to Mr. Schiff and Mr. Bury - they just got lucky.
But YOU dont need to get lucky if you follow things closely, cast off all your beliefs while you look deeply at it and most importantly of all, change your attitude to how the world you're now looking at actually works. Accepting that it is not how you want it to work, for better or for worse. If you can do this much you may still not win, there are no guarantees in this world. Contrary to popular belief, Gods will is not done on earth I'm afraid. You are it. You're alone, truth is a pathless land and it's down to you to chose based on knowledge you independently discover using your own senses free from ideology, religion, doctrine, your ego and political worldview. That way you no longer need that rare luck that only bestowes the blessed. If you win doing all that, it's the consequence of your decision to boldly cross over into the forbidden zone on Planet of the Apes. Your success is by right this time fully owned by you, divine intervention was not required. That is all.
You will no longer be a gambler. It can be forecast well enough to make a mint. And then you can buy several houses and never have to worry for your family again while retaining their prosperity and security. You dont need to get greedy. With your own found knowledge all you need to do is make just make enough to make sure your household will never need again.
Many over the years discount what I'm saying with bitterness and spite - because I'm giving them forbidden knowledge, asking me to prove that these two gamblers just got lucky.
I can prove out very quickly that Schiff and Burry were lucky and how neither do really understand why they won the gamble the last time. It's easy. These things about real estate and how it effects the macro economy go in cycles. These gamblers do not believe in cycles and forget why it happened last time, a whole generation ago. Such that when the rents are privatised, a collapse of entire economies is priced in, inevitably. There is nothing anyone can do about it except to reverse the privatisation of locations and the socialisation of private property(taxation) which no politician will ever do if they want to remain electable. In the UK alone there are 27 million households, mortgaged or not, each with 2 voters ready to go to the polls and crucify any fool who tries to take away their 'wealth'.
And these two gamblers have forgotten that this is why they won last time, and is why they could win again this time if they just repeat the identical gamble. But this time it would not be a gamble because having asked history to testify they would now be acting on knowledge not a gamble. They are not doing that at all yet and make daily forecasts about things like the dollar collapsing or bonds losing value, while both grow in strength, over years long time spans. They are still resting on the laurels of that lucky gamble that made them famous without understanding why exactly. Schiff during the plandemic was frequently talking about how quantitaive easing would cause inflation, while we were talking about how it would all end up in house prices, which it did, or simply get saved so not contribute to any house price inflation until...now. Then Schiff talked wildly about how rents were going to collapse because people were moving out of the city into the country oblivious to the fact the that locaton value just moved with the migrants to the counrty, there being no significant change in what the rents would have otherwise been all else being equal.
So the proof is gained just by listening to their latest show or investor posting. They talk about what great gamblers they are without pointing out root cause. So remain gamblers and one day if they do not change will be under water as all gamblers always end up. I hope not and do not wish it on them. But what can I do for them?
Look into how CDS's work and the history of real estate cycles. I'm happy to work on a plan with you. Its long term so don't expect a win overnight. Presently this would be a 3 year program. And when you get famous as an urban legend for predicting the market, you can say... "I knew" and that will be true, not marketing. You will not have been gambling.
You will know!