This UK parliament must be dissolved by 17th December 2024, in just under 15 months.
Parliament can be dissolved sooner than this if the ruling Conservative party so chooses.
Polling day would be expected 25 working days following this. Let us say that polling day will be sometime close to the end of 2024.
Now then... whichever party wins the election will:
- take credit for the housing boom, at the height of its manic boom phase by then
- be blamed for the great recession 2 years later
So, given history testifies repeatedly to this and makes it reasonably predictable, we'll be able to tell which of the two sides in the uni-party 'understands' the demands of the electorate the most.
That 'wiser' side will be the one which boosts homeowner profits the most with enticing election policy - to buy votes.
Both sides will also be aware that both the young and first time buyers are politically irrelevant in the game of buying votes in exchange for house prices - representing only 10% of the electorate. Of course they can never say this publicly and will continue adopting help to buy and mortgage guarantee programs for them. The net effect of which is to raise house prices even more. So its clear there is no genuine intention to help the young if the effect is to raise house prices yet more out of reach for them.
Likewise for tenants who represent only another 20% if you understand most of the young are tenants already.
This side of the uni-party also knows that both these 'constituencies' do not really bother voting anyway - what is there to vote for unless you own a house? Mere trinkets of planet saving and political correctness are all that remains to vote for.
This is very much how democracy has always worked, and pre-democracy prior to the first world war, where the lords voted by proxy for their tenants. I laugh when people say "no taxation without representation". Homeowners are always represented, in spite of taxation. Because real estate is tax free in the end, what better representation could one ask for. And tenants pay most of the taxation and have never been represented evidently.
So watch each side in the uni-party duality, jostle like the excellent salesmen they are, to see who can deliver the policy which boosts house prices the most, whilst not making it too obvious. The best politicians sell their representation for your house price vote, the party is no longer relevant. This is democracy.
Also watch out for the Tory's and how they will time it - obviously they don't want to shoot their load too early or too late. Right now it feels like they're waiting, still with plenty of time, for the right moment, given the current but fake government induced cost of living crisis. They cannot control what happens elsewhere in the world enough to be sure yet. All they can do is strategically place house price boosting policy here and there in the mean time as global events play out.
The really interesting thing is the US presidential election will happen on 5th November 2024 - fireworks night in the UK! So how will this direct the timing of the UK election?
Given the US economy is the foundation of the global economy, all rooted in real estate through mortgages, both elections coinciding will be quite a spectacle.
Not to mention how it will affect the world politically and economically. As always, if you own real estate, free from debt, your household will be fine.