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The 2026 Great Recession - What Will Trigger it and Who Will be Blamed?

Robin Smith, The SFR Group, Cambridge UK.

I'm going to tell you about how the next systemic shock will play out sometimes in 2026. What was root cause. And how governments will recover it. Primary cause once again is speculation in real estate by homeowners. With a lot of help from commercial banks. And all held together by fundamental, if not latent economic policy of nations. Caveats: the crypto triggers at the begging and the pressure riptions for recovery at the end on the slide are just me speculating. Its a strong possibility due to the crypto mania many are bought into especially in fintech. Though whatever is the trigger of the financial shock, it will be something, and it will happen. 

Following the shock and to catalyze recovery, the authorities and media will very heavily scapegoat a well know character or business sector, to cover up the principle cause - the voter. Obviously redemption of the voter is the only way to get re-elected following the shock so that recovery policy can even take place in any meaningful way. Last time the scapegoats were mostly the banksters and Bernie Madoff of course.

I'm also speculating about what will be used to recover things once the authorities have re-gathered themselves in a sensible enough way to be able to act once again. 

The original blockchain protocol as the ecash micro payments system it was always meant to be, if it ever gets adopted, which is highly unlikely, will be an astonishing labour saving device because it disintermediates payments fully, while retaining privacy and security, at scale. The banksters already hate this possibility even though it would give them a much more profitable business model if they adopted it properly. Central banks love it (CBDC) because it allows them to intro a digital form of the old cash and maintain control over monetary policy for the foreseeable future, while presently this is at risk. 

Likewise for the LVC(our think tanks principle policy proposal) to help homeowners from going under or to get a house at all when the system has long ago been sent to the deep. The LVC basically exchanges the mortgage asset for the location value of the property as a perpetual rental stream. This is financed by the state printing a promissory note to the commercial bank they can use as 'capital reserves assurance' in their current account with the BofE. Much in the same way as furlough, but into commercial banks deposit accounts held at the central bank, rather than central bank cash to an individual's deposit account. In the end this means the private individual maintains ownership of their land or castle full capitalist style, but the rent, or the fraction of it they needed to give up to afford the house, is now available for use for public services. The possibility now arises for the inherently unjust social institution of taxation to be phased out over time, to the extent the LVC’s are taken up by the people. The LVC is ‘democratised’ by being a voluntary policy instrument available to every voter - they can take it up, or leave it and take their chances with the incumbents. Adoption of the LVC is not in the least bit forced by fiat. And its enforcement once each location plot is committed to it, certainly will be, by the law - essentially putting an end to tax evasion(or revenue) - you cannot move a piece of land ex juris! So its adoption will be a matter for the people to decide under free conditions. Its proponents will see that finally, what they pay to the state is for the benefits they directly receive from the value of the location itself - they will have been cured of blindness economically. Rather than the injustice of their ability to pay in tax regardless of how much they get in exchange for that which is nearly always much less.

Financial shocks are always caused by mortgages historically(about 90% of all bank loans, which few are willing to discuss, especially activists with large houses or anyone really in a privileged socialist position). No one can prove why this always is the case scientifically, business cycles are too stochastic, there is only theory, and good theory but not proof. There are a few who claim the shock is priced in at the start of each cycle of around every 20 years, by allowing the enclosure of the economic rent of a nation in location values. If this is true, a shock is obviously inevitable. Because you cannot take more out of the system than its creating, without it eventually being sent down. It’s a latent and legalised ponzi scheme where the people are convinced that so long as they keep paying in, they will get much higher rewards in house price eventually. But only a few come out winners and these are usually the ones there at the start who understand the rules of the game or were given a lucky handout(inheritance usually). Leadership and activists are very well aware of this but tend not to mention it because a lifetime of campaigning is immediately shot down. These groups and movements will just keep focusing on superficial and high sounding causes in finance, which certainly has a big role to play in each collapse, it’s just not at the root of it. Well, neither are mortgages in the end, but that true root is a matter of metaphysics.Economically though its at the root of it. I believe this system wide denial is because we all have snouts buried deep, and if this is revealed openly... pastoral care certainly is required to complement the prophetic memory of what the future will certainly deliver!