This is a proposal to show how the 18.6 year real estate cycle is a hang over from times where the mechanics of the lunar month were used by high priests of the time to forecast ancient agricultural cycles - what we would today call a business cycle always culminating in a financial crisis and great recession.
The 18.6 year astronomical period is governed by the intersection of lunar and solar eclipses. It is known scientifically as the Saros Cycle. Where all 3 harmonics of the orbit of the moon coincide once every 18.6 years. The ancient scholars knew this and had been measuring it for aeons. And the politicians of the time used it to name the day when the economy had to be deliberately reset by fiat. This reset was necessary because they noticed around 19 years is as long as an economy can survive when being unjustly abused by its people. Any longer making it too late to recover on its own. And without the reset much worse effects emerge. They knew this. They did not know why. They just observed it.
This observation was the wisdom of the leadership of the time. As the aeons went by, the meaning and rationale of this policy became normalised - people and leadership forgot about why it was necessary. It persisted as part of the economic world of the time and continued to where we are are today. Except, there are no longer priests and politicians who remember its mechanics and rationale. A great recession still occurs bang on time because the people are still abusing the economy wholesale. But those with the power to enact a controlled trigger are not aware this is a fundamental necessity at the deepest level of society - no one can see it coming any more.
The end of this 18.6 year period will occur toward the end of 2026, maybe early 2027. This time globally. There are no longer any economic borders in spite of people demanding leaders make or break them. China may be pulled in this time too and that completes the global input. America will lead the crisis through mortgages again and everyone else will catch their cold.
Why was the policy initiated in the first place by the ancients? Because they only had so much control over an ignorant and selfish people. Given this inevitably meant a system wide crash was coming, it was found to be more beneficial for the economy to be deliberately recycled periodically rather than leaving it to run its course out of control with nature being the final arbiter. The high priests knew this from millennia of records handed down. They realised about 19 years was as long as any economy could hold out if the people insisted on abusing it. These powerful ones still got the blame nonetheless - they accepted being scapegoats because they did so well out of it anyway.
I have no significant evidence for this, except that it happens. Nearly every 20 years the world sees its economies, mostly in harmony with each other, collapse suddenly. So far I personally have witnessed 3 great recessions. In 1972, 1990 and 2008. The latter 2 impacted my personal economy directly through the retail financial bond we know as a mortgage.
What is the real estate cycle exactly? It is the inevitable consequence of enclosing the economic rents of a system as the foundation of a nations economic and fiscal policy. In other words.
1) privatisation of unearned incomes and
2) taxation of earned incomes
Eventual collapse is priced in at the start of every cycle, because you cannot take more out of an economy than is being produced forever. Its just a matter of when. This 'when' is when the totality of economic rents which must paid, usually debt, exceed the ability of the productive part of an economy, to pay them. It happens suddenly and worldwide each time because no one can see it coming any more. It recovers when the rents have fallen once again below the line of productivity, or if a new labour saving device or more pure government increases production, or a bit of both.
I'm not saying this is a good or bad thing, that something must be done about it or we should promote more of it. I am just pointing it out. And I am saying that it is what the people, en masse, through democratic due process have freely chosen since ancient times - abuse. It is not a direct effect of an oligarchy of wealth and power. That is, all people in society are to blame as a collective every time, not Power.
Whats remarkable about this economic policy, is its the only one which all sides politically and ideologically refuse to give serious scrutiny to. It goes deeper. All sides politically who would normally be fiercely competing for Power, stand together, united, in perfect harmony, when it comes to this curious policy, and will fight together as comrades against anyone who tries to bring it into the light. It's the one policy which harmonises both the left and the right into a single party and draws ferocious resistance whenever raised as a point for debate. For me that is the strongest signal of all that I look at it far more deeply. Why? Because it is not an economic question any more, we know it happens. Nor can it be a political one if all sides are in agreement on it. It must be getting driven by much deeper activity - the so called psyche of society, if anything like that can be imagined.
Moving on... The nodes of what professional astronomers call a draconic lunar month make a complete orbit of the earth in about 6,798 days (18.6 years) - this Dragon in its journey represents death and re-birth at the end and the beginning of each cycle - the cycle of the life of an economy. My hypothetical proposition is that this particular lunar cycle was chosen to forecast ancient business cycles because it was also found by coincidence to be about as long as an economy could remain afloat under the abuse of its people before it could no longer hold out and collapsed. Though it was obvious to the priests it would collapse anyway, using this accurate measure of time from the heavens meant the administration could 'forecast' it. And knowing roughly when it would happen, could at least retain some level of control over the people and inevitable shock. And given it came from the heavens the priests represented could scare people into letting them do it. The priests didn't believe it. They just knew it was better to collapse the system on purpose and still be in at least some state of control, rather than let nature take care of it, and pretended it was the work of gods.
But when nature is left to deal with it, morals, equity, fairness, human rights, equality, diversity and so on, are not something she cares about - the good and bad alike will all be treated by her with no accounting for these artificial human trinkets.
For the sceptic, there's nothing mysterious or mystical about this proposal. Its just maths and geometry which ancient people had at hand in abundance. The interesting thing in the modern world about each financial shock, is that the 'unconscious collective' seem to completely forget about the last shock within about 4 years. This 'loss of memory' tends to last nearly 20 years - about a human generation and the lifetime of a typical mortgage. One twentieth of the harvest buys the field as the old farmers saying goes. One twentieth is 5% which even more curiously is the ultra long term average increase in annual rents - 20 years rent buys the property as a bundle of rights, in perpetuity. Anyone younger than 20 will have no memory of the last great recession at all as they start looking at the prospect of getting on the ladder as a first time buyer. So not only are they the last players to enter the game - they have no idea about its rules or history and how to budget and hedge their bets.
In the UK alone there are 27 million households. In the US over 100 million. In China? The Dragon's arrival will be the biggest event, of all global events, until the next one in 20 years. Bigger than a world war. Bigger than a plandemic. Bigger than a planned ethnic insurrection which destroys a nations history.
All this is hard to prove obviously. We can only do research to see where it takes us. If ancient civilisations were using draconic months to measure their business cycle for 1000's of years, its not hard to see how that could have become normalised over time into the developing social organisations such that it became concrete and automatic. With each administration structuring the economy to remain synchronised with a 20 year cycle. Eventually reaching a point where it remained fully adopted yet no one asked about why anymore.
And here we are today. Awaiting the Dragon's return, perhaps the end of 2026 or maybe a bit later.
But what if the Dragons activity is to assure, for the nations benefit, that a systemic financial shock happens, right on time? To get this picture I've had to stop imagining that all activity is conscious activity, or done deliberately by conspiracy. It might have been a sensible logical activity for the priests ten thousand years ago to protect the state. But today this governing activity is an unconscious one. It's buried away deep in the core mind of society for very good reason. And the Dragon is simply doing its duty.
The People, as a collective across history, have yet to find a way to elect a good government or even something approaching that. So be it. This hypothesis is not the only systemic activity the high priests of science use today which is taken for granted by the people. So the proposal has precedent scientifically and is worthy of further research.