The Recession vehicle is mortgages. The asset is real estate. The net affect will be 30% correction in house prices overnight. And either 1) government bailing out all single homeowner mortgagors or 2) 1 in 10 families losing their homes and families. More likely a bit of both.
By the end of 2026 we forecast the economies of the western world will have collapsed, so that they're in a position to recover from the past 20 years, and re-establish themselves for the next 20.
Whichever party wins the 2024 election will bear the brunt of blame in 2026 for causing the recession. It will not have been their policies which caused it but the majority who elected them. Nevertheless, this majority will blame the incumbents for the recession. To such an extent that another snap rejection will be forced onto the government and the other side of the Uniparty will be back in power.
Notice how housing comes up with high visibility in all manifestos on the ballot. Yet no one dares talk about restitution. Only jealousy of wealth and punishment of those who have a lot of it. Never a root cause analysis of periodic recession in spite of huge productivity. The biggest driving factor in global finance will escape.
How come? There are 27 million households in the UK. Each with 2.2 votes - an overwhelming majority. Democracy is a sham. The reality is this so called one man one vote is about getting rent and hanging onto it in spite of the consequences. Be that by getting a mortgage or buying second homes. Or beyond that trading in derivatives and securities which follow housing indirectly, AKA global finance. Which is largely monopoly profits, or economic rent, which eventually ends up coming out of land values anyway. Only a fecund householder and voter knows this intuituvely and will never adopt any other investment policy. The feckless homeowner who does not have this wisdom and authenticity should be seen as no better than a gambler who's family should divorce him and put as much distance between them and him as possible.
For the candidates, it's forbidden to discuss homeownerism. It will make you unelectable for the reasons above. Discussing the eminent possibility of solving most large scale economic and financial problems is not on the table if you want to be elected. So do not blame the politicians it's You the house buyer who in the final analysis decides and has the real power. And the majority of you will vote for homeownerism as normal. This election is no different.
This is great news for Landlords like me. Tomorrow will be an entertaining day to observe. That is, how intensely will homeowners vote for rent this time, notwithstanding where they stand politically? Whichever way it swings is irrelevant to the economy. Whichever way it goes will be driving rental values anyway. I will observe the entertainment while smoking cigars.
Be authentic, and live.