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Will it be Possible to Discover the Price of Retail Solar and Nuclear Electricity?

A quick review of the numbers for a small 2 bed with no more than 2 people living there.

SOURCES: https://www.withouthotair.com/c6/page_38.shtml

Whats the least such a home could get away with, if, using the latest tech? Let's say requiring no more than 10kWh daily for all hot water, heating and general electricity consumption.

  • In the south, at ground level, the sun gives you 110W/m2 on a year round, sun and cloud, night and day, south facing average.
  • The best solar panels will be about 20% efficient so that leaves you with 22W/m2. That is, you will be able to generate an average of 22 watts, per square meter(m2), per second. Or 22 watt hours if measured over an hour.
  • Multiply 22 by 24 hours to get a daily number = 528 wH per m2
  • Divide 10000(10kWh) by that to get the number of m2 of panels you need =19m2
  • To find the number of average sized panels divide that by 1.5 = 13 solar panels

Typical costs for this installation with a decent battery to pick up energy during off peak and to fill in for living in a sun free country, will be about £15,000.

Similarly for a heat pump to reduce consumption for heat and hot water is about another £5000(with up to £7000 freebie grant paid out of the wages of the poor and increasing electricity prices, prohibiting the poor from taking part too).

Add another 10kWh per day blob of energy if you drive an EV up to 12,000 miles a year.

Add another blob for every extra 2 bedrooms in the house used by real people.

So it all scales up nicely and can be done. What is the cost of achieving this if we imagine a situation where every single household upgrades and given hardly anyone has so far?

Lets assume for simplicity all 27 million homes are very average small 2 bed houses that a single 10 kWh blob can sustain. So multiply 27 million by £22,000 and you get a cool £600,000,000,000 or £600 billion. This is a hell of a big number but do not fear, with it we can turn the whole nation to solar power and hey presto.

Make a note that the total lekky needed for all imaginary UK homes is 98,550 GWh annually

Go compare with current nuclear power and if not satisfactory adapt and compare the price? Remember it is the honourable net zero citizen which is paying for the solar power capital in exchange for 'free' electricity. Whereas sticking with nuclear you pay for it all in the energy price where OPEX and CAPEX are all priced in. It all comes out in the wash depending on total capital and operating costs. Remembering also your operating costs come free of charge because it is you as the home owner who puts in the upkeep.

What are the costs of nuclear compared to the £600 billion?

A modern EPR reactor installation supplies up to 3.25 GW continuously at a load factor of about 90%. Lets say 3GW electric max. So thats about 26,000 GWh's annually. 98550/26000 = about 3.8 modern nuclear reactor stations.

Currently the pricing of these stations is wholly distorted by radiation hysteria regulations and a media fully supporting that hysteria, a powerful movement of planet savers who will die to stop the poor getting cheap electricity, and I'm afraid the industry itself up to the usual corporate stuff. In the UK one station usually costs about £20 billion. (they used to cost about £4Bn 15 years ago). My well informed network tells me the real cost for a safe power station is about a third so lets say £7 billion. 

To compare, solar versus nuclear, capital costs:

Solar - £600Bn

Nuclear - 10*3.8 = £38Bn

Yes, I do realise that this is not a fair comparison because the nuclear side does not yet include the additional retail cost of the energy to the user. But, the solar side does not include the operational costs for 27 million users either which is not in the least insignificant. 

The costing is a problem for solar because even small price changes are amplified by 27 million. Likewise for savings of course. And for nuclear the problem is unexpected activity causes huge single lump sum changes in prices, for example decentralising regulation, or curing irrational fear. 

Both have received enormous subsidies distorting price discovery. But to be fair nothing like what windmills get which is about 3 times as much subsidy.

And both systems will achieve economies of scale very quickly. Solar will be a smoother infinitesimal price transition. And nuclear will make huge course grained leaps in cheapening per station.

But at least we now know the gross costs of both systems. And that both systems can deliver results. Its jsut a matter of will to assure the market and the public can discover the best good price. 

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