Look to history.
Every revolution, no matter what the outcome of it, no matter who was right and who was wrong, has given permission for the wholesale slaughter of the perpetrators in that time and place. And the slaughter happened each time.
Of course this did not solve anything because sooner or later came the next so called revolution - to go around in a circle and end up where you started.
So who are the perpetrators the revolutionaries will slaughter this time?
We all know. Perpetrator psyche gives it all away, early and clearly.
Those with High IQ learn how to remember the future.
Thanks once again to Grok for helping with the research:
- ≈10–20 % end up clearly “better” than the regime they replaced within 20–30 years (measured by freedom, prosperity, and stability).
- Clear long-term winners: American Revolution, Velvet/Revolutions of 1989 in Central Europe.
- Partial successes that eventually stabilized: Glorious Revolution (1688), some Latin American independence wars in the 19th century.
- ≈50–60 % replace one form of authoritarianism with another, often worse in the short-to-medium term.
- Classic examples: French (1789 → Terror → Napoleon → restoration → more revolutions), Russian (1917 → civil war → Stalin), Chinese (1949 → Great Leap Forward → Cultural Revolution), Iranian (1979 → theocratic dictatorship), Egyptian (2011 → military coup).
- ≈20–30 % collapse into chaos, civil war, or foreign intervention and end up partitioned or re-conquered (Haitian exception proves the rule—it succeeded but at horrific human cost and long-term poverty).
- Early radical phase → terror or mass violence → strongman or oligarchy restores order → eventual stabilization, sometimes decades later, under a less oppressive but still authoritarian system.
- Examples: Cromwell → Restoration, Robespierre → Napoleon, Lenin/Trotsky → Stalin, Castro → Castro, Khomeini → IRGC-dominated system.
- Central authority collapses and never fully reconstitutes (Libya 2011, Yemen 2011, Syria 2011).
- Requires pre-existing pluralistic institutions, rule of law culture, or overwhelming external support.
- American Revolution (benefited from colonial legislatures and British legal tradition), 1989 in Poland/Czechoslovakia/Hungary (civil society + European integration as anchor).
- Massive death tolls in the first 5–15 years (war, terror, famine, disease). Average death toll of 20th-century revolutions is in the high hundreds of thousands to tens of millions.
- Economic collapse in the first decade (hyperinflation, expropriation, trade collapse).
- Élite replacement: old aristocracy/oligarchy is killed or exiled; new revolutionary élite (often from lower-middle class or minor gentry) takes over and becomes the new privileged class.
- Thermidorian reaction within 3–20 years: the revolution “devours its children” and moderates or authoritarians take over from the original radicals.
- Revolutions attract romantics and fanatics; moderates and competent administrators usually sit them out or get purged.
- The skills needed to destroy an old regime (conspiracy, mob violence, ideological purity) are almost the opposite of the skills needed to run a country (compromise, technical competence, tolerance of pluralism).
- External powers almost always intervene (blockades, invasions, or covert support for one faction), turning many revolutions into proxy wars.
- The “worst get on top” (Hayek’s phrase): in a revolutionary situation, the most ruthless and organized tend to win internal power struggles.
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