I thought I'd post this response to a friend demanding I forecast the economy today. He has recently made a bold decision to get out of real estate. And following the China tariff war, I'd commented that his action might have been good timing.
But who actually knows? All I can say is that to 'face the Dragon' head on is the best way to deal with the unknown. And to avoid denial of prevailing conditions when they make me feel uncomfortable.
See here for my long running detail and rationale. 2026 Great Recession Roadmap
The crypto aspect is lagging somewhat. But the proximate cause of every great recession is not that relevant. And is largely a smoke screen for the under lying root cause, to help the perpetrator escape from complicity, of course! That is to say:
- The People, not wealth and power
- Speculating systemically in Real Estate
- Because policy for the distribution of wealth makes that the least risky approach
- Notwithstanding its obvious moral and ethical questions
- And its inevitable outcome which is always economic collapse
<snip>
"My apologies, I didn't realise you asked - if the Great Recession comes early "it might have been a good decision".
But... I'm still gunning for the end of 2026 early 2027. With a huge boom prior to that.
Now... If Trumps crazy policy of zero tariffs works out, which it might, America leads the world. There will be a huge boom without too much doubt.
And... this boom will feed indirectly yet ultimately into real estate, as always. Think 2008. This will be bigger.
I've no idea if this forecast will play out. It's based on historical cyclical activity and the idea has been led well by a Mr. Fred Harrison for several decades. But it is my forecast and I'm sticking to it for now. If I'm wrong, I will confess it openly. I've been running with it for 15 years already.
Is that satisfactory?"
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