Start Date of the Next Great Recession 01 July 2026 - PUT IT IN YOUR DIARY

Food for thought. In the US - the economy all others follow religiously even if they won't admit it, the last Great Recession was announced on 1 Dec 2008, where it was declared to have commenced on 1 Dec 2007 a year earlier.

I'm forecasting the next giant recession will happen on 01 July 2026, which is simply 6795 days later than 1 Dec 2007, or 18.6 years and by pure coincidence is the same length of cycle as a Major Lunar Standstill. The last standstill occurred in December 2024. I'm just sayin'.

These dates are not scientifically precise because there's no way of pinpointing that from an economic model of a billion exchanges per day. Its simply the official date the US has used already.

Also take note that July is summer holiday so expect the recession to start a bit later in September when The People are back home - an economy is not like a machine where you can scientifically measure the moving parts and gears and where they'll be at a point in time. The people all decide in unison when the recession will start usually triggered by a sudden panic but obviously this is not a planned activity - the people as a whole unit are not like an individual who consciously acts.

Its curious how the 1st Bitcoin block was made soon after the US administration announced the recession. I'm not saying the text statement inserted manually within that block was anti bank or anything. I'm just pointing at it for curiosity.

I've been forecasting the next recession for about 15 years now, to be 18.6 years after the last one, in the footsteps of the worlds greatest economic forecaster, Mr. Fred Harrison. 

So if you're watching me to signal the start of the next recession I'll use the same metrics, purely because that's all I have technically. I have history on my side too, but who ever remembers that anyway and how much has it been revised especially lately? And we're looking at 01 July 2026 for the start date, likely to be announced a year later by the administration of the number one economy. 

It may well be the last time the US leads the world economically and has power over this narrative.

Could this be a 'front running' opportunity for the wise investor?

If you want to 'short' real estate - the root cause of every recession, that is to say - homeowners and not banksters, make sure to have completed your sale by then, in full and have banked the proceeds.

If you possess real estate free from debt(mortgage) it matters little wether or not you go long or short on real estate:

1. You can go long safe in the knowledge real estate will come back stronger than capital investments within 4 years, in spite of falling by up to 30% from peak prices. And then boom more than capital. Theres no time in which history has not testified clearly to this. So just sit tight and your good. 
2. If you like a risk, you can go short and sell up, at just the right moment, if the tax liability makes it still worth it. Rent for a while if your primary residence. Then buy back in again within the next 4 years. With some good luck and timing, awaiting its inevitable recovery and growth beyond its value before the recession. And profit by whatever the difference is. But if the capital gain is big enough to invest, where the hell will you put it?

If you own real estate with debt(a mortgage) it matters a lot more if you go long or short:

1. If you hang on to your home with the impending recession, do you have enough savings and income combined to keep making the payments? During hard times banks are not so kind. Neither are employers. If you do not have enough put by, you might lose everything. 
2. If you sell up in time, a very risky and uncertain prospect, you can pocket the 'capital' gain you've made up until then. But real estate tends to rise little in price in the 18 months prior to a great recession, unless there are extraordinary global circumstances. Wait, things are indeed extraordinary right now are they not? So you may miss out on up to 50% further gains if you time it poorly, if say the Fed reduces rates by 3 points. The big question then is, where the hell are you going to put it that's safer during these hard times? We've heard all about gold and bitcoin and since when has that ever been safe?

Because you are endebted to landowners via a tenancy, a mortgage and via taxation of your earned income, your household will always be in jeopardy, but especially during great recession. 

If you do not own real estate at all, that is, you are a tenant or still living with Mum and Dad, you will simply be the loser in this game, paying for the profits of the winners who do own real estate, via high taxation. 

Real estate owners do not pay tax on it, in the end, after capital gain liability has all been clawed back, and some in the rising price over years. This is why it's impossible to tax the wealthy, and a stupidity par excellence to call for it. It's a great wonder why the experts cannot see this. Maybe they can but are lying to you.

Those who own free from debt are of course the biggest winners. This is a virtual guarantee. Made by the state.

This is not financial advice. It is a forecast produced by learning how to remember the future. Take it at your peril. It is entirely a risk you take and I wish you all the best of all good luck with it. If you win I will not be jealous and will take off my hat to you.

My final note here is to ask you to look at the calendar above. Satoshi minted the first bitcoin block (50 Bitcoins) a year after the US admin declared the start of the recession. And just a month after it was announced officially. 

For several years now I've been saying that Bitcoin will not be adopted wholesale until the time and place is right, no matter who is in power promoting it, no matter which blockchain is the best for whatever reason. These matters do not emerge on the earth, they are objective facts of the collective psyche. Systemic events like these happen because the people as a collective, choose them, yet unconsciously.

And I'm forecasting that 18.6 years following the creation of the genesis block - block 1 as it was called in the original protocol, the US administration will deploy wholesale 1) tokenised deposits for private bank money and 2) a central bank digital currency for central bank money, as a way to help the economy recover and bail out the nations of the world this time rather than merely the private banks. 

The term bailout is another inversion though. In the wealthier nations, we all get bailed out no matter how rich it poor, by the poorest nations first who usually pay with their lives. I have no particular sympathy for the poorest if all, after all they also choose their life and wether to stay there or fight for a better one. They are humans identical to rich people. I'm just pointing out what will happen, who will bail us all out and how they will do it - in a hundred million excess deaths, the same as always.

In this country and the US, to all intents and purposes this means a homeowner bailout at scale for the first time in history. Effectively all mortgages will be temporally defaulted and the banks reconstituted with Bitcoin tokens in these 2 forms.

Be careful: these bailout tokens, let's call them rent pounds or rent dollars, will not be anything like the ki d Pres. Trump is amplifying right now. No!

You heard it here first.