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Forecasting Recession - Whatever you do, do not Listen to the Experts

Checkout yet another analysis of experts, analysis of recession forecasting

How well did our experts in the academies of learning forecast the 2008 house price) crash? 

Uh hum...

This is how we let the credit crunch happen, Ma'am ...

But even the analysis the LSE made for the Queen is nonsense. They failed because their view the economy was an ultra limited view, which makes land value the same thing as capital. They say it was just foolish debt and exuberance which caused it. Taking great care not to mention the tens of millions of home owner speculators being root cause - that of course is 'forbidden language' cross party. It is the one thing which unties both left and right in the Uniparty.

Remember, they had so much warning, from non celebrity analysts who had peer reviewed data, it hurt to watch them ignore it when it was a dead cert. And after all they get billions in funding to boot. Ho hum. The Queen recognised it when she asked them at the LSE in 2009 why they didn't see it coming. And so it goes... on and on. 

It's so funny that we still pay respect to the experts because they have never accurately forecast anything successfully. Look at even their most recent record. Its not so funny to observe the economic ideology of the left and the right is what is making a low risk forecast, so risky for anyone who listens to them. So be it.

So, how do clients make hay with this situation and protect their 'households'?

We only have to look to history for a testimony of what is very likely to be repeated, given policy has not changed fundamentally. For example, in 2007 interest rates were higher than they are now and prices were still booming. As was the case in '88 and '71. Curiously in the Guardian piece above in 2007 they were describing interest rates as low at 7% back then compared to todays' high interest rates of 5.25%.

Can you see the neurosis yet? Very intelligent and highly seated experts, by the score, are fully possessed by cognitive dissonance - their political ideology, both left and right, blinds them from seeing what is actually happening, so are totally unable to forecast anything successfully except by luck.

The ignorance here is astonishing to see - relatively high interest rates are ALWAYS overwhelmed by the manic rush to get on the ladder WHEN there is a huge supply of money ready and waiting AND government are already bailing out homeowners with latent boom policy to buy votes. The UK general and US presidential elections coming up on 2024 can only intensify temptation for the Uniparty to pump it even more.

This isn't slamming experts for the hell of it. It is saying, "why do we still pay respect to them for their knowledge"? When its so clear they are incapable.

Nevertheless, there will be an almighty crash globally in around 2026, where we forecast, governments of all parties will buy or will already have bought prior to the upcoming elections, the votes of the people, in exchange for mortgage bail outs or similar. I'm hoping it is crypto which I feel needs to crash in a big way to allow the original technology to re-emerge free from the scammers who hodl sway right today. I don't see any other way for blockchain tech to gain widespread adoption while the current narrative is driving most free enterprise and government administration away.

But why are prospective government likely to sell mortgages to buy votes this time? Mortgagors have emerged as the biggest political constituency now both the left and right have abandoned their traditional constituencies - both seem more interested in encouraging good people to become victims, it is most bizarre. Even socialist government will not care about tenants and the poor, not that I'm particularly sympathetic to them. I'm just pointing at what is going to happen. And am not an expert so my forecast is more trustworthy at the very least.

See here for a roadmap for the 2026 great recession up and coming.  Bear in mind, I'm confident about broadly why and when the recession will happen. The crypto triggers are speculative and only an idea about what I want to believe. Whatever, there will be some kind of trigger not directly related to mortgages which lights the touch paper.

My advice to clients is this: 

  • dont get greedy in the boom already underway with maybe 50%+  rises coming before 2026 during a traditional manic frenzy to buy
  • likewise, you have maybe 12 months to buy if you don't own already before prices are starting to approach unsustainable levels on mortgage, the crash might see a correction of over 30%
  • if you already own, just sit tight, don't do anything risky for the next 3 years and you will make it through without a problem, almost certainly
  • keep 6 months payments in your back pocket in case you're struck by particularly bad luck which is most unlikely
  • you don't want to sell, you want to hold out until prices bottom at the very least in 2027, and even then you may as well hold on because prices and rents will start rising again faster than salaries anyway. Sure, if you like gambling then go ahead and sell at the top in 2025 and buy back when prices bottom perhaps by 2027
Go well.

 

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